Predicting fungal growth: the effect of water activity on Aspergillus flavus and related species.

Growth of four species belonging to Aspergillus Section Flavi (A. flavus, A. oryzae, A. parasiticus and A. nomius) was studied at 30 degrees C at ten water activities (aw) between 0.995 and 0.810 adjusted with equal mixtures of glucose and fructose. Colony diameters were measured at intervals and plotted against time. A flexible growth model describing the change in colony diameter (mm) with respect to time was first fitted to the measured growth data and from the fitted curves the maximum colony growth rates were calculated. These values were then fitted with respect to aw to predict colony growth rates at any aw within the range tested. The optimum aw for each species and time to reach a colony diameter of 3 mm were also calculated.