Yashin A I, Vaupel J W, Iachine I A
Aging Research Unit, Odense University Medical School, Denmark.
Mech Ageing Dev. 1994 May;74(1-2):1-14. doi: 10.1016/0047-6374(94)90094-9.
Several alternative mortality models fit Swedish old-age mortality data equally well. The models build on two different concepts of the heterogeneity of individuals in a population. The first concept concerns fixed, genetic differences among individuals in their risk of death. The second concept involves acquired susceptibility to death due to physiological changes and environmental influences. We show that alternative mortality models based on either of these two concepts or some mix of them lead to the same parametric form of observed age-specific death rates. We discuss this duality property of mortality processes and show that even when a mortality model fits the data, the concepts used to construct the model may not be correct.
几种替代死亡率模型对瑞典老年死亡率数据的拟合效果同样良好。这些模型基于人口中个体异质性的两种不同概念构建。第一个概念涉及个体在死亡风险方面固定的遗传差异。第二个概念涉及由于生理变化和环境影响而获得的死亡易感性。我们表明，基于这两个概念中的任何一个或它们的某种组合的替代死亡率模型会导致观察到的年龄别死亡率具有相同的参数形式。我们讨论了死亡率过程的这种对偶性质，并表明即使一个死亡率模型拟合了数据，用于构建该模型的概念也可能不正确。
