Burmaster D E, Anderson P D
Alceon Corporation, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02238-2669.
Risk Anal. 1994 Aug;14(4):477-81. doi: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.1994.tb00265.x.
We propose 14 principles of good practice to assist people in performing and reviewing probabilistic or Monte Carlo risk assessments, especially in the context of the federal and state statutes concerning chemicals in the environment. Monte Carlo risk assessments for hazardous waste sites that follow these principles will be easier to understand, will explicitly distinguish assumptions from data, and will consider and quantify effects that could otherwise lead to misinterpretation of the results. The proposed principles are neither mutually exclusive nor collectively exhaustive. We think and hope that these principles will evolve as new ideas arise and come into practice.
我们提出了14条良好实践原则，以帮助人们进行和审查概率性或蒙特卡洛风险评估，特别是在涉及环境中化学物质的联邦和州法规的背景下。遵循这些原则进行的危险废物场地蒙特卡洛风险评估将更易于理解，能明确区分假设和数据，并会考虑和量化那些否则可能导致结果被误解的影响。所提出的原则既非相互排斥，也非详尽无遗。我们认为并希望，随着新思想的出现和付诸实践，这些原则也将不断发展。
