Thompson K M, Burmaster D E, Crouch E A
Alceon Corporation, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02238.
Risk Anal. 1992 Mar;12(1):53-63. doi: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.1992.tb01307.x.
Most public health risk assessments assume and combine a series of average, conservative, and worst-case values to derive a conservative point estimate of risk. This procedure has major limitations. This paper demonstrates a new methodology for extended uncertainty analyses in public health risk assessments using Monte Carlo techniques. The extended method begins as do some conventional methods--with the preparation of a spreadsheet to estimate exposure and risk. This method, however, continues by modeling key inputs as random variables described by probability density functions (PDFs). Overall, the technique provides a quantitative way to estimate the probability distributions for exposure and health risks within the validity of the model used. As an example, this paper presents a simplified case study for children playing in soils contaminated with benzene and benzo(a)pyrene (BaP).
大多数公共卫生风险评估会假定并综合一系列平均、保守和最坏情况的值，以得出保守的风险点估计值。此程序存在重大局限性。本文展示了一种使用蒙特卡洛技术在公共卫生风险评估中进行扩展不确定性分析的新方法。扩展方法与一些传统方法一样，首先要准备一个电子表格来估算暴露量和风险。然而，该方法接着会将关键输入建模为用概率密度函数（PDF）描述的随机变量。总体而言，该技术提供了一种定量方法，可在所使用模型的有效性范围内估算暴露量和健康风险的概率分布。作为一个例子，本文给出了一个简化的案例研究，对象是在受苯和苯并(a)芘（BaP）污染的土壤中玩耍的儿童。
