Hughes J M
Ann Occup Hyg. 1994 Aug;38(4):555-60, 415-6. doi: 10.1093/annhyg/38.4.555.
The linear, no-threshold model is commonly used for estimating lifetime lung cancer risk from asbestos exposures. Studies of chrysotile workers have observed shallow slopes for the exposure-response relationship for miners/millers, friction products manufacturing workers and asbestos-cement (primarily chrysotile) workers but a steeper slope (approximately 16 times higher) for textile workers. For chrysotile exposures in buildings, where short fibres constitute the great majority of the fibres, the shallow slope is judged more appropriate. Using this slope the data regarding exposure levels to building occupants and maintenance workers, the annualized risks of lung cancer would be approximately 0.01 and 0.6 per million for these groups, respectively. Using the higher slope would result in risks 16 times higher, still considerably lower than those commonly accepted. Contrary to the model's assumption of increased risk for any amount of exposure, a number of studies have demonstrated evidence that lung cancer risk is not associated with years exposed to low exposure levels. Moreover, the accumulating evidence that asbestos-induced lung cancer may require lung fibrosis suggests a practical threshold since detectable lung fibrosis will not result from environmental exposure levels. Evidence suggests that the relative risk to non-smokers bay be slightly higher than to smokers (by a factor of 1.8). However, if this is true, this has little effect on risk assessment due to the low absolute risk in non-smokers. Tremolite has been associated with an increased risk of lung cancer in a study of vermiculite miners; the slope of the exposure-response relationship was similar to that for crocidolite miners and much higher than that of chrysotile miners. In spite of a recent report indicating that asbestos-associated lung cancer risk may be limited only to adenocarcinomas, the bulk of the evidence fails to confirm this.
线性无阈值模型通常用于估算因接触石棉而导致的终生肺癌风险。对温石棉工人的研究发现,矿工/磨工、摩擦产品制造工人和石棉水泥(主要是温石棉)工人的暴露-反应关系斜率较平缓,但纺织工人的斜率更陡(约高16倍)。对于建筑物中的温石棉暴露,短纤维占绝大多数,因此认为平缓的斜率更为合适。根据这个斜率以及建筑物居住者和维修工人的暴露水平数据,这些人群的肺癌年化风险分别约为百万分之0.01和0.6。使用较高的斜率会使风险高出16倍,但仍远低于普遍接受的风险水平。与该模型中任何暴露量都会增加风险的假设相反,多项研究表明,肺癌风险与低暴露水平的暴露年限无关。此外,越来越多的证据表明,石棉诱发的肺癌可能需要肺纤维化,这意味着存在一个实际阈值,因为环境暴露水平不会导致可检测到的肺纤维化。有证据表明,非吸烟者的相对风险可能比吸烟者略高(系数为1.8)。然而,即便如此,由于非吸烟者的绝对风险较低,这对风险评估影响不大。在一项对蛭石矿工的研究中,透闪石与肺癌风险增加有关;其暴露-反应关系的斜率与青石棉矿工的相似,远高于温石棉矿工的。尽管最近有报告表明,与石棉相关的肺癌风险可能仅局限于腺癌,但大量证据并未证实这一点。