Role of selective recall in the overprediction of fear.

Overprediction of fear is a bias in which phobic individuals tend to overestimate the amount of fear they will experience in a subjectively threatening situation. The selective recall model states that this bias arises because memories of highly fearful experiences are more easily retrieved than memories of nonfearful experiences. The model predicts that phobics should show a greater magnitude of overprediction if they receive fear-relevant priming compared with fear-irrelevant priming. A study of 100 spider-fearful Ss found that the magnitude of overprediction was smallest after fear-relevant priming, thus refuting the model. Alternative models are considered, and directions for further investigation are set out.