Duncan T E, Duncan S C, Hops H
Oregon Research Institute, Eugene 97403.
J Stud Alcohol. 1994 Sep;55(5):588-99. doi: 10.15288/jsa.1994.55.588.
This article demonstrates a latent growth curve methodology for analyzing longitudinal data for adolescent alcohol use by combining information from different overlapping age cohorts to form a single developmental trajectory. Hypotheses concerning the form of growth in alcohol use, the extent of individual differences in the common trajectory over time, and covariates influencing both initial status and the form of growth were tested. Utilizing five separate age cohorts each measured over the same 4-year period, results suggested a common trajectory existed across the 8 years represented by the cohort-sequential analysis, with alcohol use increasing more rapidly during the adolescents' transition to high school. Family cohesion and peer encouragement for alcohol use were hypothesized to influence both initial status and the trajectory of alcohol consumption during adolescence. While family cohesion served to suppress initial levels of consumption delaying the upward trajectory of alcohol use, peer encouragement was related not only to initial, and elevated, levels of use, but was predictive of those changes that occurred during adolescence. Discussion involves the importance of family and peer influences in the development of adolescent alcohol use and the utility of the cohort-sequential approach in the analysis of longitudinal data.
本文展示了一种潜在增长曲线方法，通过整合来自不同重叠年龄队列的信息以形成单一发展轨迹，来分析青少年酒精使用的纵向数据。对有关酒精使用增长形式、共同轨迹中个体差异随时间变化的程度以及影响初始状态和增长形式的协变量的假设进行了检验。利用五个独立的年龄队列，每个队列在相同的4年期间进行测量，结果表明在队列序列分析所代表的8年中存在一条共同轨迹，在青少年向高中过渡期间酒精使用增长更快。家庭凝聚力和同伴对饮酒的鼓励被假设会影响青少年时期饮酒的初始状态和轨迹。虽然家庭凝聚力有助于抑制初始消费水平，延迟酒精使用的上升轨迹，但同伴鼓励不仅与初始和较高的使用水平有关，而且还能预测青少年时期发生的那些变化。讨论涉及家庭和同伴影响在青少年酒精使用发展中的重要性以及队列序列方法在纵向数据分析中的效用。
