Duncan T E, Tildesley E, Duncan S C, Hops H
Oregon Research Institute, Eugene 97403, USA.
Addiction. 1995 Dec;90(12):1647-60. doi: 10.1046/j.1360-0443.1995.901216477.x.
Latent growth modeling (LGM) was used to analyse longitudinal data for adolescent substance use from five overlapping age cohorts (11, 12, 13, 14, and 15 years at first assessment) measured at four annual time points. An associative cohort-sequential model was tested for alcohol, cigarette and marijuana use with a sample of 345 adolescents (11-18 years old) from an urban area in the Pacific Northwestern region of the United States. Hypotheses concerning the shape of the growth curve, the extent of individual differences in the common trajectory over time, and the influence of family cohesion, peer encouragement and gender on initial substance use and shape of the growth curve were tested. Results indicated similarities between alcohol, cigarette and marijuana initial use and development, with peer encouragement and family cohesion predictive of initial levels of use, and changes in peer encouragement influencing the developmental trajectories of the three substances. Females were higher than males in initial status and developed less rapidly in their use of the substances than did males. Findings are discussed in terms of the similarities and differences in the developmental trajectories of the three substances and the importance of family and peer influences on these trends.
潜在增长模型（LGM）用于分析来自五个重叠年龄队列（首次评估时年龄为11、12、13、14和15岁）的青少年物质使用纵向数据，这些数据在四个年度时间点进行测量。对来自美国太平洋西北地区一个城市地区的345名青少年（11 - 18岁）样本的酒精、香烟和大麻使用情况测试了一种关联队列序列模型。检验了关于增长曲线形状、个体在共同轨迹上随时间差异程度以及家庭凝聚力、同伴鼓励和性别对初始物质使用及增长曲线形状影响的假设。结果表明酒精、香烟和大麻的初始使用及发展情况存在相似性，同伴鼓励和家庭凝聚力可预测初始使用水平，同伴鼓励的变化会影响这三种物质的发展轨迹。女性在初始状态下高于男性，且在物质使用方面的发展速度比男性慢。从这三种物质发展轨迹的异同以及家庭和同伴影响对这些趋势的重要性方面对研究结果进行了讨论。
