[Initial prognostic factors of aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage].

The purpose of this retrospective study is to explain, using a total of 210 consecutive patients with aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage, the survival by several prognostic factors measured at the admission time. A multivariate analysis using the Cox proportional hazards model allowed one to recognize five prognostic factors: secondary arterial hypertension (risk ratio (RR) = 1.8; p = 0.03), the Hunt and Hess grade-3 (RR = 3.3; p = 0.002), the Hunt and Hess grade-4 (RR = 7.3; p = 0.007), and the hunt and Hess grade-5 (RR = 5.8; p = 0.03), the Fisher grade-3 (RR = 2; p = 0.01), and the Fisher grade-4 (RR = 2; p = 0.001). The determination of a prognostic score for each patient (using the coefficients of selected prognostic factors) allowed one to establish 3 prognostic stages with survival probabilities significantly different (p = 0.00005); stage-1; survival rate after 150 days (SR) = 97 %, confidence interval of 95 % (CI) = [0.90; 0.99], stage-2: SR = 66 %, CI = [0.56; 0.74], stage-3; SR = 34 %, CI = [0.17; 0.54]. The relative death risk for the stage-2 was 14 times higher than that for stage-1 (p = 0.00005), and the relative death risk for the stage-3 was 36 times higher than that for stage-1 (p = 0.00005). The age, the essential arterial hypertension, the sex and the angiographic classification of George have no prognostic value. The rebleeding incidence was correlated with prognostic stages (respectively from stage-1 to the stage-3: 8 %, 14 %, 34 %).(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)