[The use of the results of a statistical analysis for the goal-directed correction of epidemic-control measures with respect to measles].

Measles morbidity and the state of the immune stratum among children during pre-epidemic, epidemic and post epidemic periods, taken separately, has been analyzed by a specially developed method of statistical analysis. With the immune stratum remaining the same, differences in morbidity rates in different years of the cycle have been revealed. The study has demonstrated that in the presence of a high level of the immune stratum measles morbidity retains its cyclic character, which may be attributed to the action of other factors on this process. Morbidity rate has been found to be influenced by such factor as the frequency of contacts with the source of infection, and in this connection the risk of contacting measles by nonimmune children varies in different age groups of children. Regressive equations have been constructed on the basis of the above approach, thus permitting the prognostication of measles morbidity for the coming year in individual groups of children, which is of importance for the scientifically substantiated and oriented correction of antiepidemic measures.