Krawczak M
Abt. Humangenetik, Medizinische Hochschule, Hannover, Germany.
Electrophoresis. 1994 Feb;15(2):165-9. doi: 10.1002/elps.1150150128.
A simulation study was performed in order to determine whether or not the assumption of independence, made in the quantitative analysis of multilocus DNA fingerprints, represents an inadmissible over-simplification. A total of 10,000 cases of true and false paternity, respectively, were simulated in twenty replicas of various genetic models. Log-likelihood ratios (paternity vs. non-paternity; LR) were calculated using published likelihood formulae and assuming position-wise independence. The resulting LR distributions were compared to (i) the results of a classical analysis of the underlying genotype data, and (ii) the distributions expected from the likelihood model employed in the LR calculations. Although considerable discrepancies were observed between these distributions, decision making about paternity appeared to be only marginally affected, especially when only a fraction of each multilocus DNA fingerprint was analyzed.
为了确定在多位点DNA指纹定量分析中所做的独立性假设是否是不可接受的过度简化，进行了一项模拟研究。在各种遗传模型的20个复制品中分别模拟了总共10000例真实和虚假亲子关系案例。使用已发表的似然公式并假设位置独立性来计算对数似然比（亲子关系与非亲子关系；LR）。将所得的LR分布与（i）基础基因型数据的经典分析结果，以及（ii）LR计算中使用的似然模型预期的分布进行比较。尽管在这些分布之间观察到了相当大的差异，但关于亲子关系的决策似乎仅受到轻微影响，尤其是当仅分析每个多位点DNA指纹的一部分时。
