Shafir E
Department of Psychology, Princeton University, NJ 08544.
Cognition. 1994 Apr-Jun;50(1-3):403-30. doi: 10.1016/0010-0277(94)90038-8.
This paper considers the relationship between decision under uncertainty and thinking through disjunctions. Decision situations that lead to violations of Savage's sure-thing principle are examined, and a variety of simple reasoning problems that often generate confusion and error are reviewed. The common difficulty is attributed to people's reluctance to think through disjunctions. Instead of hypothetically traveling through the branches of a decision tree, it is suggested, people suspend judgement and remain at the node. This interpretation is applied to instances of decision making, information search, deductive and inductive reasoning, probabilistic judgement, games, puzzles and paradoxes. Some implications of the reluctance to think through disjunctions, as well as potential corrective procedures, are discussed.
本文探讨了不确定性下的决策与通过析取进行思考之间的关系。研究了导致违反萨维奇确定性原则的决策情境，并回顾了各种常常引发混淆和错误的简单推理问题。常见的困难归因于人们不愿通过析取进行思考。建议人们不要假设遍历决策树的各个分支，而是暂停判断，停留在节点上。这种解释适用于决策、信息搜索、演绎和归纳推理、概率判断、游戏、谜题及悖论等实例。文中讨论了不愿通过析取进行思考的一些影响以及潜在的纠正方法。
