Taylor J M, Chon Y
Department of Biostatistics, UCLA School of Public Health 90024.
Stat Med. 1994 May 15;13(9):969-81. doi: 10.1002/sim.4780130907.
We use a penalized likelihood approach to obtain a smooth estimate of a bivariate distribution from grouped data where each observation consists of a region in a plane. The purpose of the analysis is to estimate the incubation period distribution of AIDS from the Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study, a prevalent cohort of homosexual men. In this article we illustrate the usefulness of the penalized likelihood approach. We also discuss the use of a cross-validation and a Bayesian scheme to choose the smoothing parameters and bootstrap samples to assess uncertainty.
我们使用惩罚似然方法，从分组数据中获得二元分布的平滑估计，其中每个观测值由平面中的一个区域组成。分析的目的是根据多中心艾滋病队列研究（一个同性恋男性的流行队列）估计艾滋病的潜伏期分布。在本文中，我们阐述了惩罚似然方法的有用性。我们还讨论了使用交叉验证和贝叶斯方案来选择平滑参数以及使用自助抽样来评估不确定性。
