Ernst R L, Hay J W
Department of Pharmaceutical Economics and Policy University of Southern California, Los Angeles 90033.
Am J Public Health. 1994 Aug;84(8):1261-4. doi: 10.2105/ajph.84.8.1261.
OBJECTIVEs. An earlier paper estimated the per-case and national incidence costs of Alzheimer's disease for 1983. This paper updates the estimates of costs per case to 1991 and presents new national prevalence estimates of the economic and social costs of the disease.
All data for the cost estimates were taken from published sources or provided by other researchers.
At midrange values of the estimated cost and epidemiological parameters, the discounted (at 4%) direct and total costs of Alzheimer's disease were $47,581 and $173,932 per case, respectively. The estimated 1991 national direct and total prevalence costs were $20.6 billion and $67.3 billion, respectively. Assuming conservatively that the prevalence of the disease remains constant, the estimated discounted present values of the direct and total costs of all current and future generations of Alzheimer's patients are $536 billion and $1.75 trillion, respectively.
The $536 billion and $1.75 trillion figures are minimum estimates of the long-term dollar losses to the US economy in 1991 caused by Alzheimer's disease.
目的。较早的一篇论文估算了1983年阿尔茨海默病的单病例成本和全国发病率成本。本文将单病例成本估算更新至1991年，并给出了该疾病经济和社会成本的新的全国患病率估算。
成本估算的所有数据均取自已发表的资料或由其他研究人员提供。
在估算成本和流行病学参数的中等取值情况下，阿尔茨海默病的贴现（4%）直接成本和总成本分别为每病例47,581美元和173,932美元。1991年全国直接患病率成本和总患病率成本估算分别为206亿美元和673亿美元。保守假设该疾病的患病率保持不变，所有当前及未来各代阿尔茨海默病患者的直接成本和总成本的估算贴现现值分别为5360亿美元和1.75万亿美元。
5360亿美元和1.75万亿美元这两个数字是1991年阿尔茨海默病给美国经济造成的长期美元损失的最低估算。
