Gilpin E A, Lee L, Evans N, Pierce J P
Cancer Center, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla.
Am J Epidemiol. 1994 Sep 15;140(6):535-43. doi: 10.1093/oxfordjournals.aje.a117280.
To the authors' knowledge, calendar year trends in cigarette smoking initiation rates have not been examined on a population basis. National Health Interview Survey data (1970, 1978, 1979, 1980, 1987, and 1988) on age of starting to smoke fairly regularly were used to compute smoking initiation rates for males and females aged 10-24 years from 1944 through the mid-1980s. Information from 102,626 respondents was included. The authors examined trends in these rates and looked for associations with milestones in the antismoking public health campaign. Smoking initiation in 21- to 24-year-old (adult) males declined sharply beginning around 1950 when evidence regarding the health consequences of smoking was first made public. The decline in adult females began in the mid-1960s when the Surgeon General's report was released, intensifying the public health campaign. The initiation rate for adult males and females dropped below 1% by the end of the study period. Initiation rates in 15- to 20-year-old males also began to decrease in the mid-1960s, but rates for 10- to 14-year-old males did not decrease over the study period. Initiation rates for females both in the 15-20 and 10-14 year age groups actually increased, at least through the mid-1970s. These trends in smoking initiation suggest that knowing the health consequences of smoking has kept adults from starting to smoke. Such knowledge either may be lacking or may not be salient among the youngest age groups.
据作者所知，尚未在总体人群基础上对吸烟起始率的历年趋势进行研究。利用国家健康访谈调查数据（1970年、1978年、1979年、1980年、1987年和1988年）中关于开始相当规律吸烟的年龄信息，计算了1944年至20世纪80年代中期10至24岁男性和女性的吸烟起始率。纳入了来自102,626名受访者的信息。作者研究了这些比率的趋势，并寻找与反吸烟公共卫生运动中的里程碑事件之间的关联。21至24岁（成年）男性的吸烟起始率在1950年左右开始急剧下降，当时关于吸烟对健康影响的证据首次公开。成年女性的下降始于20世纪60年代中期，当时发布了美国卫生局局长的报告，强化了公共卫生运动。到研究期结束时，成年男性和女性的起始率降至1%以下。15至20岁男性的起始率在20世纪60年代中期也开始下降，但10至14岁男性的起始率在研究期间没有下降。15至20岁和10至14岁年龄组女性的起始率实际上都有所上升，至少持续到20世纪70年代中期。这些吸烟起始率的趋势表明，了解吸烟对健康的影响使成年人不再开始吸烟。在最年轻的年龄组中，可能缺乏这种知识，或者这种知识可能不突出。
