Adami H O, Bergström R, Sparén P, Baron J
Cancer Epidemiology Unit, University Hospital, Uppsala, Sweden.
Lancet. 1993 Mar 27;341(8848):773-7. doi: 10.1016/0140-6736(93)90557-w.
There is controversy about cancer mortality trends; some analyses show increasing mortality, but others suggest that rates are falling in the youngest age groups. We have investigated trends in cancer incidence in the whole of Sweden for the period 1958 to 1987. 837,085 cancer cases were registered during the period studied. Incidence rate patterns were studied by age-period-cohort modelling. The risk of cancer was higher for people born during the 1950s than for those born in 1873-82; for women the risk was doubled and for men it was trebled. Although the rate of increase slowed, it showed no sign of levelling off in the youngest birth cohorts. The frequency of smoking-related cancers increased greatly in both sexes, but such tumours could explain only part of the rise in total cancer. These trends predict a continuing rise in the incidence rate of cancer, and suggest a worrying pattern of increasing population exposure to carcinogenic influences.
关于癌症死亡率趋势存在争议；一些分析显示死亡率在上升，但另一些分析表明最年轻年龄组的死亡率正在下降。我们研究了1958年至1987年整个瑞典的癌症发病率趋势。在所研究的期间内登记了837,085例癌症病例。通过年龄-时期-队列模型研究发病率模式。20世纪50年代出生的人患癌风险高于1873 - 1882年出生的人；女性的风险翻倍，男性则增至三倍。尽管增长速度放缓，但在最年轻的出生队列中没有趋于平稳的迹象。与吸烟相关的癌症在男女两性中的发病率都大幅上升，但这类肿瘤只能解释癌症总数上升的部分原因。这些趋势预示着癌症发病率将持续上升，并表明令人担忧的是，人群暴露于致癌影响的情况在增加。
