Baker D, Klein R, Carter R
Centre for the Analysis of Social Policy, University of Bath, London.
Br J Gen Pract. 1994 Feb;44(379):68-71.
The 1990 contract for general practitioners extended the hours of eligibility for night visiting claims by 25% and introduced financial incentives to discourage the use of deputizing services.
This study set out to examine the impact of these contract changes on the rate and pattern of night visiting.
Family health services authority data were used to compare trends in night visiting before and after the introduction of the new contract. Rates were calculated separately for those authorities which might be expected to have a high rate of visiting because of their demographic structure and those that might be expected to have a high rate because of their socioeconomic composition, thus separating out these two sets of factors combined in the Jarman index.
Rates of night visiting increased by 33% between 1989 and 1990 while the proportion of visits made by deputies fell by 19%. These changes could not simply be explained either by the extension of eligible hours or the success of financial incentives in changing behaviour in the appropriate direction. It was found that the effect of the new contract was to increase visiting most in family health services authorities with a high proportion of elderly people living alone, that is, where demand would be expected to be higher. In previous years there had been little variation in visiting rates between authorities with a high proportion of those aged 65 years and over living alone and those with a low proportion. The effect of the contract was also to increase rates of visiting most in affluent authorities, that is, where demand would be predicted to be lower. This again marked a sharp break with trends in previous years in that the gap between the high rates in the deprived family health services authorities and lower rates in the most affluent authorities narrowed.
The 1990 contract achieved the government's policy aims of promoting night visiting by principals and discouraging the use of deputies in its first year. However, the finding that doctors responded more to demand from elderly people and affluent people than from deprived people presents a challenge both for analysis and for policy. It underlines the importance of disaggregating the Jarman index when examining the impact of policy change on local populations and suggests that general practitioners in the most deprived family health services authorities may lack the capacity or the incentive to respond to the changes introduced in the 1990 contract.
1990年的全科医生合同将夜间出诊报销的合格时长延长了25%,并引入了经济激励措施以减少使用代理服务。
本研究旨在考察这些合同变更对夜间出诊率及模式的影响。
利用家庭健康服务机构的数据,比较新合同实施前后夜间出诊的趋势。分别计算因人口结构可能预期出诊率高的机构以及因社会经济构成可能预期出诊率高的机构的出诊率,从而区分出在贾曼指数中综合的这两组因素。
1989年至1990年间,夜间出诊率增长了33%,而由代理医生出诊的比例下降了19%。这些变化不能简单地用合格时长的延长或经济激励措施在促使行为朝正确方向改变方面的成功来解释。研究发现,新合同的效果是在独居老年人比例高的家庭健康服务机构中,即预期需求更高的地方,增加出诊最多。在前些年,独居65岁及以上老年人比例高的机构和比例低的机构之间出诊率几乎没有差异。合同的效果还在于在富裕的机构中增加出诊最多,即预期需求较低的地方。这再次与前几年的趋势形成鲜明对比,因为贫困的家庭健康服务机构的高出诊率与最富裕机构的低出诊率之间的差距缩小了。
1990年的合同在第一年实现了政府促进主治医生夜间出诊并减少使用代理医生的政策目标。然而,医生对老年人和富裕人群需求的反应比对贫困人群需求的反应更大这一发现,对分析和政策都构成了挑战。这凸显了在研究政策变化对当地人群的影响时分解贾曼指数的重要性,并表明最贫困的家庭健康服务机构中的全科医生可能缺乏应对1990年合同引入的变化的能力或动力。