Catalano R, Dooley D, Novaco R W, Wilson G, Hough R
School of Public Health, University of California, Berkeley 94720.
Hosp Community Psychiatry. 1993 Sep;44(9):874-9. doi: 10.1176/ps.44.9.874.
The study examined two hypotheses: that being laid off increases the likelihood of violence and that being employed in an industry in which employment is unexpectedly low decreases the likelihood of violence.
Logistic regression analyses were used to examine data for more than 4,000 persons who participated in initial and follow-up interviews as part of the Epidemiologic Catchment Area survey. Data for persons who were working and not violent at the time of the initial interview but who were unemployed at reinterview were examined, as were data for persons who remained employed in industries with low employment levels.
The risk of violent behavior of those who were laid off was nearly six times higher than that of their employed counterparts. Controlling for concurrent psychiatric disorder did not reveal a lower risk. The risk of violent behavior was reduced among those who remained employed in industries where layoffs were occurring.
Economic contraction seems to affect violence in the community in two countervailing processes--one process increases violence and one reduces it. However, the net effect may well be that violence decreases in communities experiencing economic contraction.
本研究检验了两个假设：一是被解雇会增加暴力行为的可能性，二是在就业人数意外较低的行业就业会降低暴力行为的可能性。
采用逻辑回归分析，对作为流行病学集水区调查一部分参加初次和随访访谈的4000多人的数据进行检验。对在初次访谈时在职且无暴力行为但在再次访谈时失业者的数据进行了研究，对仍受雇于就业水平较低行业者的数据也进行了研究。
被解雇者的暴力行为风险比在职者高出近六倍。控制并发精神障碍并未显示出较低风险。在裁员行业中仍受雇者的暴力行为风险有所降低。
经济收缩似乎通过两个相互抵消的过程影响社区暴力——一个过程增加暴力，另一个过程减少暴力。然而，净效应很可能是经济收缩的社区暴力行为减少。
