Choi B C, Hanley A J, Holowaty E J, Dale D
Occupational and Environmental Health Unit, Faculty of Medicine, University of Toronto, Ontario, Canada.
Am J Epidemiol. 1993 Nov 1;138(9):723-34. doi: 10.1093/oxfordjournals.aje.a116910.
The objectives of this study were to develop and test surname lists for identifying Chinese ancestry. The Ontario all-cause mortality database for the period 1982-1989 was randomly split into source and test data sets. Frequencies by birthplace were compiled for each surname in the source data set, by sex, and the surnames were weighted based on their positive likelihood ratios. Lists of Chinese surnames were then assembled based on varying cutoff levels, and screening performance indicators for each list were calculated, including sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values, post-test odds, positive likelihood ratio, and yield. The internally generated lists were evaluated in the test data set. Results indicated that surnames have a good potential to identify individuals of Chinese origin. In the source data set, at a cutoff level of 100 for males (217 surnames) and females (210 surnames), both sensitivity and the positive predictive value of the surname lists for males and females were very high, above 80%, and the positive likelihood ratio was above 600. In the test data set and using the same surname lists, the sensitivity, positive predictive value, and positive likelihood ratio remained at a high level: 73%, 81%, and 603, respectively, for males; and 73%, 84%, and 772, respectively, for females. Various scenarios and their methodological implications are discussed.
本研究的目的是开发并测试用于识别华裔血统的姓氏列表。1982年至1989年安大略省全因死亡率数据库被随机分为源数据集和测试数据集。在源数据集中，按出生地、性别对每个姓氏的出现频率进行统计，并根据阳性似然比为姓氏加权。然后根据不同的截断水平汇总华裔姓氏列表，并计算每个列表的筛查性能指标，包括灵敏度、特异度、阳性和阴性预测值、检验后概率、阳性似然比及检出率。在测试数据集中对内部生成的列表进行评估。结果表明，姓氏在识别华裔个体方面具有很大潜力。在源数据集中，男性（217个姓氏）和女性（210个姓氏）的截断水平为100时，姓氏列表对男性和女性的灵敏度及阳性预测值都非常高，均超过80%，阳性似然比超过600。在测试数据集中使用相同的姓氏列表时，男性的灵敏度、阳性预测值和阳性似然比仍保持在较高水平，分别为73%、81%和603；女性分别为73%、84%和772。文中讨论了各种情况及其方法学意义。
