Blower S M, van Griensven G J
Biomedical and Environmental Health Sciences, School of Public Health, University of California, Berkeley 94720.
J Acquir Immune Defic Syndr (1988). 1993 Dec;6(12):1364-7.
Recent theoretical work suggests that reductions in aggregate measures of risk behaviors are to be expected during a human immunodeficiency virus epidemic, because mortality is likely to be differential with respect to the level of the risk behavior. We present and apply a methodology for quantifying the effects of differential mortality on risk behavior changes in closed cohort studies. We demonstrate that differential mortality has caused 21% of the observed reduction in the mean, 29% of the observed reduction in the effective average, and 33% of the observed reduction in the variance of a risk behavior in a cohort of gay men.
近期的理论研究表明，在人类免疫缺陷病毒流行期间，总体风险行为指标的下降是可以预期的，因为死亡率可能因风险行为水平而异。我们提出并应用了一种方法，用于在封闭队列研究中量化差异死亡率对风险行为变化的影响。我们证明，在一组男同性恋者中，差异死亡率导致了观察到的风险行为均值下降的21%、有效平均值下降的29%以及方差下降的33%。
