Aguirre B E, Saenz R, Edmiston J, Yang N, Agramonte E, Stuart D L
Department of Sociology, Texas A & M University, College Station 77843.
Demography. 1993 Nov;30(4):623-33.
This paper offers an empirical test of the impact of human ecological patterns and other known correlates on tornado occurrence. It uses the National Severe Storms Forecast Center's information on tornadoes from 1950 through 1990 and employs ecological data from the U.S. Bureau of the Census and the Environmental Protection Agency. The results show that metropolitan and other urban counties have higher odds of tornado occurrence than rural counties, and that the probability of occurrence of tornadoes increases with increases in the number of previous tornadoes. The paper assesses the meaning of this finding for demographers, atmospheric scientists, engineers, and disaster managers.
本文对人类生态模式及其他已知相关因素对龙卷风发生的影响进行了实证检验。它使用了国家严重风暴预报中心提供的1950年至1990年龙卷风信息,并采用了美国人口普查局和环境保护局的生态数据。结果表明,大都市及其他城市县发生龙卷风的几率高于农村县,且龙卷风发生的概率会随着先前龙卷风数量的增加而上升。本文评估了这一发现对人口统计学家、大气科学家、工程师和灾害管理人员的意义。