Mortality trend from prostate cancer in The Netherlands (1950-1989).

The trend in prostate cancer mortality in The Netherlands was studied, using data from the National Causes of Death Registry of the Central Bureau of Statistics. During the period 1950-1989, the age-adjusted mortality rate showed a steady rise from 20.5 to 30.6 per 100,000 man-years. A multiplicative model was used to examine possible period effects and birth-cohort effects separately. This analysis demonstrated that the increase in prostate cancer mortality is largely due to a birth-cohort effect, though calendar time of death may have had a slight effect as well. Among Dutch men, a continuous increase of mortality from prostate cancer was found in consecutive birth cohorts. This finding is in contrast with that of comparable studies in other Western countries, in which a peak mortality rate was found for the cohort born at the end of the 19th century with stabilizing or declining rates for later birth cohorts.