Knolle H
Institut für Sozial- und Präventivmedizin, Universität Bern.
Soz Praventivmed. 1993;38(6):341-7. doi: 10.1007/BF01359187.
Long-term predictions of the AIDS epidemic in the general population are possible only on the basis of an epidemiologic model which contains explicit assumptions about partner choice and duration of partnerships. Several models proposed heretofore predict too many AIDS cases in the next century, because they neglect the correlation between ages of partners. In heterosexuals it is frequent that many years pass between acquisition and transmission of HIV. Therefore, the correlation implies that most infection chains are disrupted because the age in the year of infection increases as new links are added to a chain. These considerations can be put into quantitative terms by adapting the classical concept of the basic reproductive rate to the special situation of HIV infection. In this way the impact of age preference and partnership duration on the spread of HIV is analyzed.
只有基于一个包含关于伴侣选择和伴侣关系持续时间明确假设的流行病学模型，才有可能对普通人群中的艾滋病流行进行长期预测。迄今为止提出的几个模型预测下个世纪会出现过多的艾滋病病例，因为它们忽略了伴侣年龄之间的相关性。在异性恋中，从感染艾滋病毒到传播往往会间隔许多年。因此，这种相关性意味着大多数感染链会被中断，因为随着新的环节加入感染链，感染年份的年龄会增加。通过使基本繁殖率的经典概念适用于艾滋病毒感染的特殊情况，可以将这些考虑因素量化。通过这种方式，分析了年龄偏好和伴侣关系持续时间对艾滋病毒传播的影响。
