Dalrymple M
United States Department of Agriculture, Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, Fort Collins, CO 80521.
Rev Sci Tech. 1993 Dec;12(4):1175-86. doi: 10.20506/rst.12.4.735.
A risk assessment model is presented, for use by local decision-makers to aid the evaluation of proposed changes in existing brucellosis eradication or control programmes. This model provides a format and structure for gathering and analysing data. The model uses data which are generally available and accessible, so that minimum time, expense and effort are required for collection. The use of this model enables an estimation of the risk of introduction of brucellosis into a non-infected population, based on the probability of importing the agent and subsequent spread, given the existence of specified surveillance and control measures. The model creates a point estimate of the risk associated with a given set of conditions.
本文提出了一种风险评估模型，供地方决策者用于协助评估现有布鲁氏菌病根除或控制计划中拟议的变更。该模型提供了收集和分析数据的格式和结构。该模型使用的是通常可获取且易于获取的数据，因此收集数据所需的时间、费用和精力最少。使用该模型能够根据引入病原体的可能性以及在存在特定监测和控制措施的情况下随后的传播情况，估算将布鲁氏菌病引入未感染人群的风险。该模型对与给定条件集相关的风险进行点估计。
