England T, Kelly L, Jones R D, MacMillan A, Wooldridge M
Centre for Epidemiology and Risk Analysis, Veterinary Laboratories Agency, New Haw, Addlestone, Surrey KT15 3NB, UK.
Prev Vet Med. 2004 Apr 30;63(1-2):63-73. doi: 10.1016/j.prevetmed.2004.01.009.
Brucellosis is a widespread, economically devastating and highly infectious zoonosis. In cattle, infection predominantly is caused by Brucella abortus, and is usually detected in pregnant females through abortions. Great Britain (GB) has been declared free from brucellosis (officially brucellosis free (OBF)) since 1993 and as such is required by European Union (EU) regulations to test > or =20% of both beef and dairy cattle >24 months old routinely. Currently, however, GB serologically tests more cattle than required and the issue of reducing the level of testing has come under consideration. We developed a simulation model to determine the rate of spread of brucellosis under a variety of testing regimes. For dairy herds, we found that reducing the level of testing would have a major effect on the rate of spread of infection, should it be imported. For beef herds, reducing the level of testing would have much less effect. We also found that abortion notification is a very-important additional means of surveillance. As a result of our predictions, policy-makers decided not to reduce the level of testing and actively to promote abortion notification.
布鲁氏菌病是一种广泛传播、具有经济破坏性且传染性很强的人畜共患病。在牛群中，感染主要由牛布鲁氏菌引起，通常在怀孕母牛流产时被发现。自1993年以来，英国已宣布无布鲁氏菌病（官方宣布无布鲁氏菌病），因此欧盟法规要求对24个月以上的肉牛和奶牛按常规抽检≥20%。然而，目前英国血清学检测的牛数量超过了要求，减少检测水平的问题已在考虑之中。我们开发了一个模拟模型，以确定在各种检测制度下布鲁氏菌病的传播速度。对于奶牛群，我们发现如果有布鲁氏菌病传入，降低检测水平将对感染传播速度产生重大影响。对于肉牛群，降低检测水平的影响要小得多。我们还发现流产报告是一种非常重要的额外监测手段。根据我们的预测，政策制定者决定不降低检测水平，并积极推广流产报告。
