Jones R D, Kelly L, England T, MacMillan A, Wooldridge M
Centre for Epidemiology and Risk Analysis, Veterinary Laboratories Agency, New Haw, Addlestone, Surrey KT15 3NB, UK.
Prev Vet Med. 2004 Apr 30;63(1-2):51-61. doi: 10.1016/j.prevetmed.2004.01.008.
Great Britain (GB) has been "Officially Brucellosis Free" (OBF) since 1991; because this disease has both public-health and international-trade implications, it is in the country's interest to maintain this freedom. A quantitative risk-assessment model was developed to determine the annual risk of importing brucellosis-infected breeding cattle into GB from Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. (These countries exported the largest number of cattle into GB and were not brucellosis free during the development of the assessment in 2000.) We predicted that we can expect to import brucellosis from Northern Ireland every 2.63 years (1.89, 4.17) and from the Republic of Ireland, every 3.23 years (2.13, 5.88). The estimates of risk are sensitive to the assumed proportion of animals missed during routine surveillance that originate from OBF herds and the uncertainty associated with the surveillance test sensitivities. As a result of the assessment, the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) introduced post-calving testing for all cattle imported into British herds.
自1991年以来，英国一直处于“官方无布鲁氏菌病”（OBF）状态；鉴于这种疾病对公共卫生和国际贸易均有影响，维持这一状态符合该国利益。开发了一种定量风险评估模型，以确定从北爱尔兰和爱尔兰共和国向英国进口感染布鲁氏菌病的种牛的年度风险。（在2000年评估开展期间，这些国家向英国出口的牛数量最多，且并非无布鲁氏菌病。）我们预测，预计每2.63年（1.89，4.17）会从北爱尔兰进口布鲁氏菌病，每3.23年（2.13，5.88）会从爱尔兰共和国进口。风险估计对常规监测中遗漏的源自OBF畜群的动物假定比例以及与监测测试敏感性相关的不确定性很敏感。评估结果促使环境、食品和农村事务部（Defra）对所有进口到英国畜群的牛进行产后检测。
