[Long-term follow up studies of asthma in children. Prognosis of asthmatic school children of the 20 years from the first investigation].

OBJECTIVE

For the prognoses of asthmatic children, reports tend to be in severe cases because most investigations are performed in specialized facilities. We presumed that the prognoses of overall asthmatic cases including mild and moderate case might be better than that reported, we therefore reviewed cases of bronchial asthma in school children in the past 20 years to investigate the prognoses.

METHOD

Cases of bronchial asthma in school children detected in an asthma survey conducted in Niigate Prefecture in 1969 were followed up in 1974 and 1982. Recently, the prognoses were studied again in 1989, 20 years after the initial survey. The subjects comprised 164 patients (125 males and 39 females).

RESULTS

The most recent survey revealed that 68.7% of the subjects were without attacks, 30.4% were suffered for attacks currently and 0.7% had already died. Asthmatic attacks were mild in 83.7% of the subjects with asthma. The largest percentage of subjects (59.4% of males and 30.4% of females) became negative for attacks after they reached 11 to 14 years of age. In all four surveys, 6.3% of males and 17.5% of females were constantly positive for attacks, while 10.9% of males and 30.3% of females became negative for attacks once but subsequently experienced recurrence of the attacks. The prognoses were worse in females than in males. The subjects who continued to have attacks after they reached adolescence were observed to have attacks frequently even after they became adults. One third of subjects with attacks had remittance lasting for two years or more. Remittance was seen in the period between the age of 15 and 25 years in most cases.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)