Genetic and economic analyses of sow replacement rates in the commercial tier of a hierarchical swine breeding structure.

Commercial-level sow replacement rates were investigated for a 10-yr planning horizon using a stochastic life-cycle swine production model. A three-tiered breeding structure was modeled for the production of market hogs in a three-breed static crossing scheme. Growth and reproductive traits of individual pigs were simulated using genetic, environmental, and economic parameters. Culling was after a maximum of 1, 5, or 10 parities in commercial levels within 1- and 5-parity nucleus and 1-, 5-, and 10-parity multiplier combinations. Yearly changes and average phenotypic levels were computed for pig and sow performance and economic measures. For growth traits, greater commercial level response was for systems with higher sow replacement rates, 110 to 115% of lowest response. Phenotypic changes in net returns ranged from $.85 to 1.01 x pig-1 x yr-1. Average growth performances were highest for systems with greatest genetic trend. Highest kilograms.sow-1 x year-1 finished was for 10-parity commercial alternatives. System differences in total costs and returns per pig resulted primarily from differences in replacement costs. Removal of the gilt system from analyses often reduced ranges among systems for economic measures by more than 70%. Systems with the lowest commercial replacement rates were most profitable. Within these systems, those with higher genetic change had highest net returns. For high replacement rates, no more than 175% of market value could be paid for gilts, but with lower sow replacement rates commercial units could justify as much as 450%.