Shinotsuka H
Department of Human Behavioristics, Faculty of Letters, Hokkaido University, Sapporo.
Shinrigaku Kenkyu. 1993 Feb;63(6):396-403. doi: 10.4992/jjpsy.63.396.
Problems consisted of two categories of questions, of general knowledge and forecasting future events. Given each question, the subjects chose a more likely answer from the given two alternatives, rated their own confidence on the correctness of the choice, and then, assessed the hit-rate of the classmates. The major result is as follows. The difference between average confidence and average hit-rate was small, namely, calibration was good, for problems of both general knowledge and familiar future events. On the other hand, calibration was poor for problems of accidental future events. In other words, the more available knowledge, the better calibration is. In discussion we proposed "a model of retrieval and generation", which could explain our results for the problems of general knowledge. Results for problems of future events suggest that the subjects possibly used a certain model to make their probability judgments. On the basis of our results and with our discussion, we found the phenomenon that people believe themselves to make mental judgments better than the average. We call the phenomenon "self-superiority phenomenon".
问题由两类问题组成，一类是常识性问题，另一类是预测未来事件的问题。针对每个问题，受试者从给定的两个选项中选择一个更有可能的答案，对自己选择的正确性给出信心评级，然后评估同学的命中率。主要结果如下。对于常识性问题和熟悉的未来事件问题，平均信心与平均命中率之间的差异很小，即校准良好。另一方面，对于意外未来事件问题，校准较差。换句话说，可用知识越多，校准越好。在讨论中，我们提出了“检索与生成模型”，它可以解释我们对于常识性问题的研究结果。未来事件问题的结果表明，受试者可能使用了某种模型来进行概率判断。基于我们的结果并经过讨论，我们发现了人们认为自己做出心理判断比平均水平更好的现象。我们将这种现象称为“自我优越现象”。
