Smith T, Lehmann D, Montgomery J, Gratten M, Riley I D, Alpers M P
Papua New Guinea Institute of Medical Research, Goroka, Eastern Highlands Province.
Epidemiol Infect. 1993 Aug;111(1):27-39. doi: 10.1017/s0950268800056648.
Rates of acquisition and mean duration of nasal carriage of different serotypes of Streptococcus pneumoniae have been estimated by fitting a stochastic model to longitudinal carriage data in children from Papua New Guinea. Immunogenicity and two indices of relative invasiveness were determined for each serotype. Immunogenic serotypes were less frequently acquired and were carried for shorter periods, but no relationship between immunogenicity and invasiveness was apparent using either index of invasiveness. Frequent invasion was associated with a high acquisition rate and high frequency and prolonged duration of carriage. Carriage studies can provide a broad indication of which serotypes cause invasive disease but not the proportion of disease due to individual serotypes; some serotypes which cause invasive disease (e.g. serotype 46) are not found even in extensive carriage studies. The antibiotic resistance of carriage organisms, however, does approximate the resistance patterns of invasive organisms and thus may be used to monitor changing patterns of antimicrobial susceptibility in the community.
通过对巴布亚新几内亚儿童的纵向携带数据拟合随机模型，估算了不同血清型肺炎链球菌的获得率和鼻腔携带的平均持续时间。测定了每种血清型的免疫原性和两个相对侵袭性指标。免疫原性血清型的获得频率较低，携带时间较短，但使用任何一种侵袭性指标，免疫原性和侵袭性之间均无明显关系。频繁侵袭与高获得率、高携带频率和携带持续时间延长有关。携带研究可以广泛表明哪些血清型会导致侵袭性疾病，但无法表明个体血清型所致疾病的比例；即使在广泛的携带研究中，也未发现某些导致侵袭性疾病的血清型（如血清型46）。然而，携带菌的抗生素耐药性确实与侵袭菌的耐药模式相近，因此可用于监测社区中抗菌药物敏感性的变化模式。
