Levi F, La Vecchia C, Randimbison L, Franceschi S
Institut universitaire de médecine sociale et préventive, Centre Hospitalier Universitaire Vaudois, Lausanne, Switzerland.
Int J Cancer. 1993 Sep 30;55(3):419-21. doi: 10.1002/ijc.2910550316.
Patients with histologically confirmed first diagnosis of superficial bladder carcinoma notified to the population-based cancer registry of the Swiss Canton of Vaud during the calendar period 1974-90 were actively followed-up to December 31, 1990 for the occurrence of a subsequent invasive tumour of the urinary bladder. Among 1,012 incident cases of superficial bladder neoplasms, followed for a total of 6,286 person/years at risk, 93 infiltrating tumours of the urinary bladder were diagnosed. Only 5.3 cases were expected on the basis of the general population of the canton. The overall standardized incidence ratio (SIR) was 17.5 (95% confidence interval, CI: 14.2-21.7). The SIR was significantly greater for females than for males. The SIR was highest between 1 and 4 years following registration of non-infiltrating cancer, and declined thereafter. The cumulative risk of invasive bladder cancer was 7%, 13%, and 16%, after 5, 10 and 15 years, respectively. This work provides population-based, accurate and reliable estimates of the risk of invasive bladder cancer following non-infiltrating cancers. Although the overall relative risk was almost 20-fold higher than in the general population, the cumulative risk of developing an invasive bladder cancer was only 16% at 15 years.
1974年至1990年期间，向瑞士沃州以人群为基础的癌症登记处报告的组织学确诊为首次诊断的浅表性膀胱癌患者，被积极随访至1990年12月31日，以观察随后是否发生膀胱浸润性肿瘤。在1012例浅表性膀胱肿瘤新发病例中，共随访了6286人年的风险期，诊断出93例膀胱浸润性肿瘤。根据该州普通人群情况，预期仅5.3例。总体标准化发病比（SIR）为17.5（95%置信区间，CI：14.2 - 21.7）。女性的SIR显著高于男性。SIR在非浸润性癌症登记后的1至4年最高，此后下降。5年、10年和15年后，浸润性膀胱癌的累积风险分别为7%、13%和16%。这项工作提供了基于人群的、准确可靠的非浸润性癌症后发生浸润性膀胱癌风险的估计。虽然总体相对风险几乎比普通人群高20倍，但15年后发生浸润性膀胱癌的累积风险仅为16%。
