Albrecht P A
Psychiatr Prax. 1993 Jan;20(1):9-14.
Predicting dangerousness is both the explicit and implicit basis for the decision on derestrictions of penal measures (treatment of mentally ill offenders in psychiatric hospitals). However, recent publications either criticize the validity of the applied criteria or question whether a valid prognosis is in any way possible. Since 1985, the Westfälische Zentrum für Forensische Psychiatrie at Lippstadt has been applying a standardized rating questionnaire to defined derestrictions: The therapeutic team is approaching the prognostic evaluation with multidimensional patient data and ratings. In a population of 263 mentally ill offenders receiving inpatient psychiatric treatment according to section 63 of the German Penal Code (StGB), an interdisciplinary research program used 202 rating questionnaires to investigate the decision-making and prediction criteria of derestriction practice. Empirical data and multivariate statistical analyses revealed that the decisions based on the rating questionnaire were thoroughly explored and responsibly substantiated: The risk in performing derestrictions of penal measures is taken in an calculated and justifiable manner. It is pointed out that the prediction of dangerousness must be considered not only when approving the derestrictions but also during the derestriction itself.
预测危险性是决定放宽刑罚措施（在精神病院治疗患有精神疾病的罪犯）的明确和隐含依据。然而，最近的出版物要么批评所应用标准的有效性，要么质疑是否有可能做出有效的预后判断。自1985年以来，位于利普施塔特的威斯特法伦法医精神病学中心一直在对特定的放宽措施应用标准化的评级问卷：治疗团队利用多维度的患者数据和评级进行预后评估。在根据德国刑法典（StGB）第63条接受住院精神科治疗的263名患有精神疾病的罪犯群体中，一个跨学科研究项目使用202份评级问卷来调查放宽措施实践中的决策和预测标准。实证数据和多变量统计分析表明，基于评级问卷做出的决策经过了充分探讨且有合理依据：采取放宽刑罚措施的风险是经过审慎计算且合理的。需要指出的是，不仅在批准放宽措施时，而且在放宽措施实施过程中，都必须考虑对危险性的预测。
