Hensley W E
J Psychol. 1977 Jan;95(1st Half):139-45. doi: 10.1080/00223980.1977.9915870.
Male and female college (n=22) and high school (n=18) students were presented information concerning probability and were also measured on the personality variables of independence of judgment, response set, Machiavellianism, and open-mindedness. An investigation of the risky shift phenomenon revealed that an understanding of probability did not vitiate the shift toward greater risk. Age was shown to be functionally related to risk taking, the teen years showing greater proclivity for risk than later years. Independence of judgment emerged as a powerful predictor of initial risk; Machiavelianism bore no relationship to risk taking. Both of these findings concerning personality variables were at odds with earlier work. An interpretation of contextual interaction was advanced as a possible explanation.
研究选取了22名大学生和18名高中生（男女皆有），向他们展示了有关概率的信息，并对他们在判断独立性、反应倾向、权谋主义和开放性思维等个性变量方面进行了测量。对风险转移现象的调查显示，对概率的理解并没有消除向更大风险的转移。研究表明，年龄与冒险行为在功能上相关，青少年时期比之后的年龄段更倾向于冒险。判断独立性成为初始风险的有力预测指标；权谋主义与冒险行为无关。这两个关于个性变量的发现均与早期研究结果不一致。文中提出情境交互作用的解释作为一种可能的原因。
