Poor prognosis associated with elevated serum CA 19-9 level in advanced colorectal carcinoma, independent of DNA ploidy or SPF.

DNA ploidy, S-phase fraction (SPF) for the tumours, serum tumour markers such as carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) and serum CA 19-9 and major clinical parameters were analysed as prognostic factors in 105 patients with advanced colorectal carcinoma. All 105 were treated with a three-drug schedule including low dose epirubicin and sequential methotrexate, 5-fluorouracil, followed by leucovorin rescue. In univariate analysis, gender, Karnofsky index, extent of metastases, presence of abdominal metastases, CEA and CA 19-9 correlated with survival. Age, presence of liver or of lung metastases, DNA ploidy or SPF were not significantly associated with survival. In stepwise multivariate analysis an elevated serum CA 19-9 level, a poor Karnofsky index and multiple sites of metastases were independent adverse prognostic factors. Based on the multivariate analysis, patients were grouped in three categories. Group 1 consisted of 32 patients with Karnofsky > or = 80, with a normal serum CA 19-9 level and a single site of metastases. Group 2 consisted of 48 patients with Karnofsky > or = 80 and with an elevated serum CA 19-9 level or multiple sites of metastases. Group 3 consisted of 14 patients with Karnofsky < or = 70. This classification gave a highly significant correlation with survival (chi 2 = 45.52, P < 0.001, log rank test). The median survival in group 1, group 2 and group 3 was 30.1 months, 13.5 months and 3.9 months, respectively. Based on these results we suggest that trials involving advanced colorectal cancer should include the measurement of serum CA 19-9 levels as one of the most important prognostic factors, but also include documentation of other independent prognostic factors.