Billard L, Zhao Z
Department of Statistics, University of Georgia, Athens 30602-1952.
Math Biosci. 1993 Sep-Oct;117(1-2):19-33. doi: 10.1016/0025-5564(93)90015-3.
As our understanding of the dynamics of the transmission of the HIV virus toward diagnosis of AIDS increases, numerous models are being developed to help explain the underlying mechanism. We show that many of the models established so far in the literature are examples of a general class of multi-stage epidemic models that are themselves right-shift processes as developed in 1969 by Severo. We focus attention on those models that can be described as three-stage, four-stage, five-stage, etc. models.
随着我们对人类免疫缺陷病毒（HIV）传播动态直至艾滋病诊断的理解不断加深，众多模型正在被开发出来以帮助解释其潜在机制。我们表明，迄今为止文献中建立的许多模型都是一类一般的多阶段流行模型的实例，而这类模型本身就是1969年塞韦罗所提出的右移过程。我们将注意力集中在那些可被描述为三阶段、四阶段、五阶段等的模型上。
