Dietz K, Heesterbeek J A, Tudor D W
Institut für Medizinische Biometrie, Universität Tübingen, Germany.
Math Biosci. 1993 Sep-Oct;117(1-2):35-47. doi: 10.1016/0025-5564(93)90016-4.
In this paper we investigate the effects of variable infectivity on the spread of HIV in a heterosexual population where pair formation and separation are taken into account. We calculate the basic reproduction ratio as a function of the number of new partners during the infectious period, keeping the total number of contacts fixed. Numerical evidence suggests that the basic reproduction ratio decreases for variable infectivity if the average infectivity is kept constant.
在本文中，我们研究了可变传染性对异性恋人群中艾滋病毒传播的影响，其中考虑了配对形成和分离情况。我们将基本繁殖数计算为感染期内新伴侣数量的函数，同时保持接触总数不变。数值证据表明，如果平均传染性保持不变，那么可变传染性会使基本繁殖数降低。
