Chelsky M, Angulo J J
Am J Trop Med Hyg. 1977 Jan;26(1):152-8. doi: 10.4269/ajtmh.1977.26.152.
The incidence of variola minor during an outbreak was analyzed by use of mathematical model B proposed by Chelsky and Angulo. Several parameters were estimated. Among these, the propagating rate (ratio of receptor cases to source cases) seems to predict the outbreak decline better than inspection of the incidence curve. The estimated mean generation interval (18.6 days) supports the thesis that variola minor is not transmitted at onset of illness but, on the average, about 4 days later. The ratio of clinical to subclinical infections (about 1 to 1) approximates those ratios found in serological surveys of variola minor and variola major outbreaks.
利用Chelsky和Angulo提出的数学模型B分析了小型天花疫情期间的发病率。估算了几个参数。其中，传播率（受体病例与源病例的比率）似乎比检查发病率曲线能更好地预测疫情下降情况。估算的平均代间隔（18.6天）支持了小型天花不是在发病时传播，而是平均约在发病4天后传播这一论点。临床感染与亚临床感染的比率（约为1比1）与小型天花和大型天花疫情血清学调查中发现的比率相近。
