Treno A J, Parker R N, Holder H D
Prevention Research Center, Berkeley, California 94704.
J Stud Alcohol. 1993 Mar;54(2):146-56. doi: 10.15288/jsa.1993.54.146.
The contribution of social and economic variables to changes in per capita alcohol consumption occurring between 1950 and 1986 is examined within a multivariate time series analysis framework. Specifically, we consider the net effects of family income, age structure of the population, marital instability, female labor force participation, real alcohol price and daily life routines on total alcohol consumption. Our findings indicate that changes in the population age structure and in daily life routines were associated with predicted changes in consumption over the period studied. They also indicate associations between marital instability and female labor force participation and consumption, although in the direction contrary to our prediction. Unlike a number of previous studies in which economic variables were found to be the major determinants of consumption trends, we find that family income and the price of alcohol play a minor role in the model we estimated. These results indicate that social structural factors have greater utility for our understanding of alcohol consumption patterns, and, by implication, for attempts to reduce alcohol-related social problems, than do economic factors.
在多变量时间序列分析框架内，研究了1950年至1986年间社会和经济变量对人均酒精消费变化的影响。具体而言，我们考虑了家庭收入、人口年龄结构、婚姻不稳定、女性劳动力参与率、实际酒精价格和日常生活习惯对总酒精消费的净影响。我们的研究结果表明，在所研究的时期内，人口年龄结构和日常生活习惯的变化与预测的消费变化相关。研究结果还表明婚姻不稳定、女性劳动力参与率与消费之间存在关联，尽管其方向与我们的预测相反。与之前一些发现经济变量是消费趋势主要决定因素的研究不同，我们发现在我们估计的模型中，家庭收入和酒精价格所起的作用较小。这些结果表明，与经济因素相比，社会结构因素对于我们理解酒精消费模式以及进而对于减少与酒精相关的社会问题的尝试具有更大的作用。
