Understanding U.S. alcohol consumption with social and economic factors: a multivariate time series analysis, 1950-1986.

The contribution of social and economic variables to changes in per capita alcohol consumption occurring between 1950 and 1986 is examined within a multivariate time series analysis framework. Specifically, we consider the net effects of family income, age structure of the population, marital instability, female labor force participation, real alcohol price and daily life routines on total alcohol consumption. Our findings indicate that changes in the population age structure and in daily life routines were associated with predicted changes in consumption over the period studied. They also indicate associations between marital instability and female labor force participation and consumption, although in the direction contrary to our prediction. Unlike a number of previous studies in which economic variables were found to be the major determinants of consumption trends, we find that family income and the price of alcohol play a minor role in the model we estimated. These results indicate that social structural factors have greater utility for our understanding of alcohol consumption patterns, and, by implication, for attempts to reduce alcohol-related social problems, than do economic factors.