Williams C W, Lees-Haley P R, Brown R S
Psychol Rep. 1993 Apr;72(2):483-94. doi: 10.2466/pr0.1993.72.2.483.
In documenting cognitive processes underlying persons' reactions to negative events, counterfactual thinking, hindsight bias, and attribution theory focus on distinct, although not unrelated, aspects of human information processing. Counterfactual thinking highlights the cognitive processing undertaken when persons imagine different courses of action that lead to alternative outcomes. Hindsight bias describes the inflated retrospective estimates individuals make regarding event probabilities that come with the advantage of knowledge about outcomes. And attribution theory concerns the affective and behavioral consequences that result from the perceived causes of events. This essay argues that a more comprehensive understanding of the processes underlying human response to traumatic events results from the integration of counterfactual thinking, hindsight bias, and attribution theory into a single model.
在记录人们对负面事件反应背后的认知过程时，反事实思维、后见之明偏差和归因理论关注的是人类信息处理中虽不相关但截然不同的方面。反事实思维强调当人们想象导致不同结果的不同行动过程时所进行的认知处理。后见之明偏差描述了个体对事件概率的夸大的回顾性估计，这种估计伴随着对结果的了解优势。而归因理论关注的是由事件的感知原因所导致的情感和行为后果。本文认为，将反事实思维、后见之明偏差和归因理论整合到一个单一模型中，能更全面地理解人类对创伤性事件反应背后的过程。
