Institut für Psychologie I, University of Leipzig, Leipzig, Germany.
J Exp Psychol Learn Mem Cogn. 2009 Nov;35(6):1539-44. doi: 10.1037/a0017006.
Two diverging hypotheses concerning the influence of surprising events on hindsight effects have been proposed: Although some authors believe that surprising events lead to a reversal of hindsight bias, others have proposed that surprise increases hindsight bias. Drawing on the separate-components view of the hindsight bias (which argues that hindsight bias consists of 3 independent components: memory distortions, impressions of inevitability and impressions of foreseeability), we reconcile these 2 perspectives by relating them to foreseeability and inevitability. Specifically, we assume that reversals in hindsight bias are to be found when foreseeability is considered, and increases in hindsight bias are found when inevitability is considered. To test these assumptions, we arranged for participants to learn about a highly surprising outcome and subsequently judge its foreseeability and inevitability. Results were consistent with our hypotheses: Participants perceived a highly surprising but explainable outcome to be both more inevitable and less foreseeable than participants who did not received outcome information. On the basis of experimentally induced dissociations between hindsight components, the present results thus strongly support the separate-components view of the hindsight bias.
关于意外事件对后见之明效应的影响，有两种不同的假设：一些作者认为意外事件会导致后见之明偏见的逆转，而另一些作者则认为惊讶会增加后见之明偏见。本研究借鉴后见之明偏差的独立成分观点（该观点认为，后见之明偏差由 3 个独立的成分组成：记忆扭曲、必然性印象和可预见性印象），将这两种观点与可预见性和必然性联系起来，从而调和这两种观点。具体来说，我们假设在考虑可预见性时会发现后见之明偏差的逆转，而在考虑必然性时会发现后见之明偏差的增加。为了验证这些假设，我们安排参与者了解一个非常令人惊讶的结果，然后判断其可预见性和必然性。结果与我们的假设一致：与没有收到结果信息的参与者相比，参与者认为一个非常令人惊讶但可以解释的结果更不可避免，也更不可预见。基于对后见之明成分的实验性分离，本研究结果强烈支持后见之明偏差的独立成分观点。
