Keller F, Wolfersdorf M
Abteilung Psychiatrie I der Universität Ulm, Ravensburg, Germany.
Soc Psychiatry Psychiatr Epidemiol. 1995 Nov;30(6):269-73. doi: 10.1007/BF00805793.
We examined the hypothesis that there is an increase in the number of suicides committed by psychiatric inpatients. Data were recorded in five psychiatric hospitals/departments in Baden-Württemberg (Germany) for the period between 1970 and 1992. Statistical analysis was performed by means of log-linear time-trend models that allowed us to test several hypothesis, to compare their goodness of fit, and to correct for related factors (number of admissions, number of suicides in the general population). Results showed that the model of a general increase could be rejected. The separation of the yearly frequencies into two parts (1970-1979 and 1980-1992) revealed an increase in the inpatient suicide rate during the years 1970-1979 and a slowly decreasing inpatient suicide rate during the years 1980-1992, especially when taking admission numbers into account. Diagnostic subgroups (schizophrenia and depression) did not seem to deviate from these trends. The correction for the suicide numbers in the general population of Baden-Württemberg, which exhibited a remarkable decrease in the 1980s, did not influence these results. We speculate that, after some starting difficulties, the effects of the more humane treatment procedures introduces in the 1970s are beginning to be felt.
我们检验了这样一种假设，即精神科住院患者的自杀数量有所增加。我们记录了德国巴登 - 符腾堡州五家精神病医院/科室在1970年至1992年期间的数据。通过对数线性时间趋势模型进行统计分析，该模型使我们能够检验多个假设、比较它们的拟合优度，并校正相关因素（入院人数、普通人群中的自杀人数）。结果表明，总体上升的模型可以被否定。将年度频率分为两部分（1970 - 1979年和1980 - 1992年）后发现，1970 - 1979年期间住院患者自杀率上升，而1980 - 1992年期间住院患者自杀率缓慢下降，尤其是在考虑入院人数的情况下。诊断亚组（精神分裂症和抑郁症）似乎并未偏离这些趋势。对巴登 - 符腾堡州普通人群自杀数量进行校正（该州自杀数量在20世纪80年代显著下降）并未影响这些结果。我们推测，在经历了一些初期困难之后，20世纪70年代引入的更人性化治疗程序的效果开始显现出来。
