Moolgavkar S H, Luebeck E G, Hall T A, Anderson E L
Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, WA 98104, USA.
Epidemiology. 1995 Sep;6(5):476-84. doi: 10.1097/00001648-199509000-00003.
Many recent analyses have reported associations between air pollution and mortality in U.S. cities. In this paper, we present the results of regression analyses of daily mortality in Philadelphia during the period 1973-1988. Pollution variables included in the analyses were total suspended particulates (TSP), sulfur dioxide, and ozone. We controlled for the effects of weather on mortality by analyzing mortality separately for each season and explicityly including quintiles of temperature in the regression models. In regression models that consider weather and pollution variables simultaneously, daily mortality is associated with hot days in summer [relative risk (RR) for highest quintile of temperature = 1.07; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.04-1.10], and with cold days in spring (RR for lowest quintile of temperature = 1.07; 95% CI = 1.04-1.10), fall (RR for lowest quintile of temperature = 1.05; 95% CI = 1.02-1.08), and winter (RR for lowest quintile of temperature = 1.04; 95% CI = 1.01-1.07). When all three pollution covariates and weather are considered simultaneously in the regression model, ozone is associated with mortality in summer (RR = 1.15; 95% CI = 1.07-1.24) and sulfur dioxide is associated with mortality in spring (RR = 1.19; 95% CI = 1.06-1.33), fall (RR = 1.14; 95% CI = 1.00-1.29), and winter (RR = 1.21; 95% CI = 1.09-1.35), where the relative risks are for incremental changes of 100 parts per billion in ozone and sulfur dioxide on the previous day.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)
最近许多分析报告了美国城市空气污染与死亡率之间的关联。在本文中,我们展示了1973年至1988年期间费城每日死亡率的回归分析结果。分析中纳入的污染变量包括总悬浮颗粒物(TSP)、二氧化硫和臭氧。我们通过按季节分别分析死亡率并在回归模型中明确纳入温度五分位数来控制天气对死亡率的影响。在同时考虑天气和污染变量的回归模型中,夏季炎热天气与每日死亡率相关[温度最高五分位数的相对风险(RR)=1.07;95%置信区间(CI)=1.04 - 1.10],春季寒冷天气(温度最低五分位数的RR = 1.07;95% CI = 1.04 - 1.10)、秋季(温度最低五分位数的RR = 1.05;95% CI = 1.02 - 1.08)和冬季(温度最低五分位数的RR = 1.04;95% CI = 1.01 - 1.07)也与之相关。当在回归模型中同时考虑所有三个污染协变量和天气时,臭氧与夏季死亡率相关(RR = 1.15;95% CI = 1.07 - 1.24),二氧化硫与春季(RR = 1.19;95% CI = 1.06 - 1.33)、秋季(RR = 1.14;95% CI = 1.00 - 1.29)和冬季(RR = 1.21;95% CI = 1.09 - 1.35)的死亡率相关,其中相对风险是指前一天臭氧和二氧化硫每十亿分之一增量变化的情况。(摘要截至于250字)