Steele F, Diamond I, Wang D
Department of Social Statistics, University of Southampton, UK.
Demography. 1996 Feb;33(1):12-23.
Often in demography, individuals may change state over time for a variety of reasons. Competing-risks hazards models have been developed to model such situations. This paper describes the extension of the discrete-time competing-risks hazards model to a multilevel framework that allows for data at different levels of aggregation. The model is illustrated with data from the 1988 Chinese National Survey of Fertility and Contraceptive Prevalence, which collected complete contraceptive histories. Women may stop using a method of contraception for a number of reasons; this paper describes how one can control for correlations between the outcomes of repeated spells of contraceptive use.
在人口统计学中，个体常常会因各种原因随时间改变状态。为对这类情况进行建模，已开发出竞争风险风险模型。本文描述了将离散时间竞争风险风险模型扩展到一个多层次框架，该框架允许不同聚合层次的数据存在。用1988年中国全国生育与避孕普及率调查的数据对该模型进行了说明，该调查收集了完整的避孕史。女性可能因多种原因停止使用某种避孕方法；本文描述了如何控制重复避孕使用周期结果之间的相关性。
