Lotufo P A, Benseñor I J, de Lolio C A
Departamento de Clínica Médica, Universidade de São Paulo, Brasil.
Rev Saude Publica. 1995 Dec;29(6):434-9. doi: 10.1590/s0034-89101995000600003.
Mortality from asthma has shown important variations over time in several countries. In Brazil, a mortality study performed in the 60s, covering the cities of S. Paulo and Ribeirão Preto, and other ten cities showed that S. Paulo presented the lowest death rate from asthma among of them all. It was decided to study the time trends of deaths from asthma and from the whole set of respiratory diseases from 1970 to 1992, in the population aged 15-34 yrs. old in the State of S. Paulo, as well as to compare them with those of other countries. Asthma mortality rates during the 23 years of observation since 1975, showed an oscillatory declining pattern with a peak of deaths in the initial years. The linearization of the curve allows the calculation of Pearson's correlation coefficient that was significantly negative, suggesting a decline in the mortality over this period, mainly in the 5-9 yrs. old and 30-34 yrs. old strata. The segmentation of data between the period of ICD-9, 1970 to 1978, and of ICD-9, 1979 and subsequent years, shows that there is stability within each period, in all age-groups, except for that of 5-9 yr. olds between 1970-1978. Comparing the rates of the population aged 15-34 yrs. old for the State of S. Paulo, Brazil, with trends observed in 14 other countries, an intermediate pattern for the first triennial period (1970-1972) as well as for the subsequent triennial periods, emerges. A prevalence study of asthma, a follow up program meant for using emergency rooms and a surveillance of deaths due to all respiratory diseases and specifically to asthma are strongly recommended.
在一些国家，哮喘死亡率随时间呈现出重要变化。在巴西，20世纪60年代进行的一项死亡率研究涵盖了圣保罗市、里贝朗普雷图市以及其他10个城市，结果显示圣保罗的哮喘死亡率在所有城市中最低。因此决定研究1970年至1992年圣保罗州15至34岁人群中哮喘死亡以及所有呼吸道疾病死亡的时间趋势，并与其他国家进行比较。自1975年以来的23年观察期内，哮喘死亡率呈现出振荡下降模式，初期死亡人数达到峰值。曲线线性化后可计算出皮尔逊相关系数，该系数显著为负，表明在此期间死亡率下降，主要体现在5至9岁和30至34岁年龄组。对1970年至1978年国际疾病分类第九版（ICD - 9）期间以及1979年及后续年份的ICD - 9期间的数据进行分段分析，结果表明除1970 - 1978年5至9岁年龄组外，各年龄组在每个时间段内死亡率都保持稳定。将巴西圣保罗州15至34岁人群的死亡率与其他14个国家观察到的趋势进行比较，在第一个三年期（1970 - 1972年）以及随后的三年期呈现出中间模式。强烈建议开展哮喘患病率研究、一项针对使用急诊室的随访计划以及对所有呼吸道疾病尤其是哮喘导致的死亡进行监测。
