Lotufo Paulo A, Bensenor Isabela M
Internal Medicine, University of Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo, Brazil.
J Asthma. 2012 Oct;49(8):779-84. doi: 10.3109/02770903.2012.693237. Epub 2012 Sep 7.
Mortality from asthma has varied among countries during the last several decades. This study aimed to identify temporal trends of asthma mortality in Brazil from 1980 to 2010.
We analyzed 6840 deaths of patients aged 5-34 years that occurred in Brazil with the underlying cause of asthma. We applied a log-linear model using Poisson regression to verify peaks and trends. We also calculated the point estimation and 95% confidence interval (CI 95%) of the annual percent change (APC) of the mortality rates, and the average annual percent change (AAPC) for 2001-2010.
A decline was observed from 1980 to 1992 [APC = -3.4 (-5.0 to -1.8)], followed by a nonsignificant rise until 1996 [APC = 6.8 (-1.4 to 15.6)], and a new downward trend from 1997 to 2010 [APC = -2.7 (-3.9 to -1.6)]. The APCs varied according to age strata: 5-14 years from 1980 to 2010 [-0.3 (-1.1 to 0.5)]; 15-24 years from 1980 to 1991 [-2.1 (-5.0 to 0.9)], from 1992 to 1996 [6.8 (-6.7 to 22.2)], and from 1997 to 2010 [-3.9 (-5.7 to -2.0)]; 24-25 years from 1980 to 1992 [-2.5 (-4.6 to -0.3)], from 1993 to 1995 [12.0 (-21.1 to 59.1)], and from 1996-2010 [-1.7 (-3.0 to -0.4)]. AAPC from 2001 to 2010 was -1.7 (-3.0 to -0.4); the decline for this period was significant for patients over 15 years old, women, and those living in the Southeast region.
Asthma mortality rates in Brazil have been declining since the late 1990s.
在过去几十年间，各国哮喘死亡率有所不同。本研究旨在确定1980年至2010年巴西哮喘死亡率的时间趋势。
我们分析了巴西发生的6840例5至34岁患者因哮喘作为潜在病因导致的死亡病例。我们应用了基于泊松回归的对数线性模型来验证峰值和趋势。我们还计算了死亡率年度百分比变化（APC）的点估计值和95%置信区间（CI 95%），以及2001 - 2010年的平均年度百分比变化（AAPC）。
1980年至1992年观察到死亡率下降[APC = -3.4（-5.0至-1.8）]，随后到1996年呈无显著意义的上升[APC = 6.8（-1.4至15.6）]，1997年至2010年又出现新的下降趋势[APC = -2.7（-3.9至-1.6）]。APC根据年龄层有所不同：1980年至2010年5至14岁为[-0.3（-1.1至0.5）]；1980年至1991年15至24岁为[-2.1（-5.0至0.9）]，1992年至1996年为[6.8（-6.7至22.2）]，1997年至2010年为[-3.9（-5.7至-2.0）]；1980年至1992年24至34岁为[-2.5（-4.6至-0.3）]，1993年至1995年为[12.0（-21.1至59.1）]，1996 - 2010年为[-1.7（-3.0至-0.4）]。2001年至20
