Peto R, Lopez A D, Boreham J, Thun M, Heath C, Doll R
ICRF/MRC/BHF Clinical Trial Service Unit, Radcliffe Infirmary, Oxford, UK.
Br Med Bull. 1996 Jan;52(1):12-21. doi: 10.1093/oxfordjournals.bmb.a011519.
Estimates are made of the numbers and proportions of deaths attributable to smoking in 44 developed countries in 1990. In developed countries as a whole, tobacco was responsible for 24% of all male deaths and 7% of all female deaths, rising to over 40% in men in some former socialist economies and 17% in women in the USA. The average loss of life for all cigarette smokers was about 8 years and for those whose deaths were attributable to tobacco about 16 years. Trends in mortality attributable to tobacco differed between countries. In some the mortality in middle age (35-69 years) had decreased by half in men since 1965; in others it was continuing to increase. In women, the proportion was mostly increasing, almost universally in old age. Mortality not attributable to smoking decreased since 1955 in all OECD (Organization for European Collaboration and Development) countries, by up to 60% in men and more in women. No precise estimate can be made of the number of deaths attributable to smoking in undeveloped countries, but the prevalence of smoking suggests that it will be large. In the world as a whole, some 3 million deaths a year are estimated to be attributable to smoking, rising to 10 million a year in 30-40 years' time.
据估算,1990年44个发达国家中因吸烟导致的死亡人数及所占比例。在整个发达国家,烟草导致了24%的男性死亡和7%的女性死亡,在一些前社会主义经济体中男性这一比例超过40%,在美国女性中为17%。所有吸烟者的平均寿命损失约为8年,因烟草导致死亡者的平均寿命损失约为16年。各国因烟草导致的死亡率趋势有所不同。自1965年以来,在一些国家中年(35 - 69岁)男性的死亡率下降了一半;在其他国家则持续上升。在女性中,这一比例大多在上升,几乎普遍是在老年阶段。自1955年以来,经合组织(欧洲合作与发展组织)所有国家中与吸烟无关的死亡率都有所下降,男性下降幅度高达60%,女性下降幅度更大。无法精确估算不发达国家因吸烟导致的死亡人数,但吸烟的流行情况表明这一数字会很大。在全球范围内,估计每年约有300万人因吸烟死亡,30至40年后这一数字将升至每年1000万。