Determinants of HIV infection among female commercial sex workers in northeastern Thailand: results from a longitudinal study.

Our objective was to estimate HIV seroconversion rates among commercial sex workers (CSWs) between 1990 and 1991 and to identify the behavioral, demographic, and reproductive determinants of these rates. This study has a prospective (n = 240 with 15 cases) and a cross-sectional component (n = 271 with 34 cases). In November 1990, HIV-negative female CSWs from 24 brothels in Khon Kaen city were interviewed and were followed prospectively for up to 1 year. In March, June, and September 1991, additional HIV-negative CSWs were enrolled and prospectively followed. HIV seroconversion rates were calculated, and the Cox regression model was used to estimate the relative risks of HIV seroconversion from demographic, sexual practice, and reproductive factors, adjusted for the effects of the others, among 232 of the 240 without missing data. Seroprevalence rates were also calculated for the 271 participants enrolled between March and December 1991, and relative risks of HIV seroprevalence were calculated for demographic, sexual practice, and reproductive risk factors among 184 of the 271 without missing data. The average seroprevalence was 12.5% (95% confidence interval 9.6-15.4%). With 1,947 person-months of observation obtained from 240 participants who were uninfected at baseline and seen at least twice during the course of the study, the cumulative incidence of HIV seroconversion between November 1990 and December 1991 was 9.4% (95% confidence interval 5.4-13.4%), and the average incidence rate of HIV seroconversion was 9.2 per 100 person-years (95% confidence interval 4.6-13.9 per 100 person-years). In the multivariate analysis, later date of enrollment into the study, having < 3 months experience as a CSW, and use of injectable contraceptives were the only risk factors that remained significant, with relative risks of 2.1 (95% confidence interval 1.2-3.7) for enrollment 3 months later, 3.8 (95% confidence interval 1.0-14.4) for < 3 months experience as a CSW versus > 3 months experience, and 3.9 (95% confidence interval 1.3-11.8) [corrected] for use of injectable contraceptives. In multivariate analysis of the cross-sectional data with 184 participants, of whom 21 were HIV seropositive, risk of HIV seropositivity increased significantly with current syphilis infection (odds ratio 5.8, 95% confidence interval 1.1-31.0). The results of this study will contribute to a better understanding of the risk factors of infection with HIV and thus allow for better targeting of group-specific interventions, particularly for CSWs and their clients. Further investigation of a possible association between injectable contraceptive use and HIV infection is needed.