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[精神治疗中的决策树]

[Decision trees in psychiatric therapy].

作者信息

Dantchev N

机构信息

Service de Psychiatrie, Hôpital de la Salpêtrière, Paris.

出版信息

Encephale. 1996 May-Jun;22(3):205-14.

PMID:8767049
Abstract

The main objective of decision analysis is to offer a theoretical representation of choices made in an environment of uncertainty. This technique is currently under development in a great variety of fields, particularly in medicine, where aid in decision making is the topic of much research. Psychiatry, in turn, is very much concerned by these new developments which could be of particular interest to therapeutics-an area where the large number of studies and date are in great contrast with the lack of consensus concerning the various solutions proposed to patients. Decision analysis utilizes different techniques among which are decision trees. The technique of decision trees goes far beyond a simple graphic representation of reasoning in the form of a chart. Its basic principles is to measure the uncertainty associated with decision making in the hopes of better understanding the rationale of decisions while optimizing the gain versus cost ratio. The goal is to calculate, within a series of decisions, the weight of their importance expressed in terms of usefulness or unpleasantness. In psychiatric therapeutics, only three studies have been published which incorporate the technique of decision trees. Two of these deal with treating depression (Schulberg et al., 1989; Koenig et al., 1993) while the third deals with schizophrenia (Hatcher, 1995). The limits of these techniques are, on one hand, due to their feasibility in that their complexity renders them inapplicable when a great number of variables have to be taken into account or when the amount of necessary data is still insufficient. Moreover, the use of these techniques remains relatively restricted as their expansion depends upon their acceptance by clinical physicians. Also, their use raises questions as to what extent it is possible to rationalize decisions in psychiatry. From a larger perspective, one must consider that these techniques may eventually furnish certain elements which could be integrated to help further the field of decision-making representations for clinical use. These decision-making techniques are still in the experimental stages and remains difficult to apply to clinical practice. However they appear to be of a great interest, not only in communicating knowledge both in teaching and training, but in research as well. They allow us to view the results of epidemiological studies and clinical research from a more global perspective; to make evident the grey areas of our science and to determine new priorities in research.

摘要

决策分析的主要目标是为在不确定环境中做出的选择提供一种理论表述。目前,这项技术正在众多领域中不断发展,尤其是在医学领域,决策辅助是众多研究的主题。反过来,精神病学也非常关注这些新进展,这些进展可能对治疗学特别有意义——在这个领域,大量的研究和数据与针对患者提出的各种解决方案缺乏共识形成了鲜明对比。决策分析运用了多种技术,其中包括决策树。决策树技术远不止是以图表形式对推理进行简单的图形表示。其基本原则是衡量与决策相关的不确定性,以期更好地理解决策的基本原理,同时优化收益与成本比。目标是在一系列决策中计算出以有用性或不愉快程度表示的其重要性权重。在精神科治疗中,仅有三项采用决策树技术的研究发表。其中两项涉及抑郁症治疗(舒尔伯格等人,1989年;凯尼格等人,1993年),而第三项涉及精神分裂症(哈彻,1995年)。这些技术的局限性一方面在于其可行性,因为当需要考虑大量变量或必要数据量仍然不足时,其复杂性使其无法应用。此外,这些技术的应用仍然相对受限,因为它们的推广取决于临床医生的接受程度。而且,它们的使用引发了关于在精神病学中决策能在多大程度上合理化的问题。从更宏观的角度来看,必须考虑到这些技术最终可能提供某些要素,这些要素可被整合起来以推动临床决策表示领域的进一步发展。这些决策技术仍处于实验阶段,难以应用于临床实践。然而,它们似乎极具价值,不仅在教学和培训中传播知识,在研究中也是如此。它们使我们能够从更全面的角度看待流行病学研究和临床研究的结果;凸显我们学科的灰色地带,并确定新的研究重点。

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