Knolle H
Institut für Sozial- und Präventivmedizin der Universität Bern.
Soz Praventivmed. 1996;41(3):143-9. doi: 10.1007/BF01305384.
The registry of charges against users of illegal drugs in Switzerland is showing a steady increase from 1977 to 1990. Of course, the relation between the number of charges and the number of users is unknown and may vary in time and space. But it is shown here that the dependency of the data from the practice of the police can be circumvented with the help of a mathematical model and the distinction between first and subsequent charge. The least squares fit of the model to the data leads to an estimated time series of the number of illegal drug users that implies, with respect to 1977, the twofold in 1982 and the threefold in 1990.
瑞士非法药物使用者的指控登记显示,从1977年到1990年呈稳步上升趋势。当然,指控数量与使用者数量之间的关系尚不清楚,且可能随时间和地点而变化。但本文表明,借助数学模型以及首次指控与后续指控之间的区分,可以规避数据对警方执法情况的依赖。该模型与数据的最小二乘拟合得出了非法药物使用者数量的估计时间序列,这意味着相对于1977年,1982年使用者数量翻了一番,1990年则增至三倍。