Noever D A, Brittain A, Matsos H C, Baskaran S, Obenhuber D
National Aeronautics and Space Administration, George C. Marshall Space Flight Center, Huntsville, AL 35812, USA.
Biosystems. 1996;39(2):135-41. doi: 10.1016/0303-2647(96)01611-5.
In projecting climatic adjustments to anthropogenically elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide, most global climate models fix biome distribution to current geographic conditions. Previous biome maps either remain unchanging or shift without taking into account climatic feedbacks such as radiation and temperature. We develop a model that examines the albedo-related effects of biome distribution on global temperature. The model was tested on historical biome changes since 1860 and the results fit both the observed temperature trend and order of magnitude change. The model is then used to generate an optimized future biome distribution that minimizes projected greenhouse effects on global temperature. Because of the complexity of this combinatorial search, an artificial intelligence method, the genetic algorithm, was employed. The method is to adjust biome areas subject to a constant global temperature and total surface area constraint. For regulating global temperature, oceans are found to dominate continental biomes. Algal beds are significant radiative levers as are other carbon intensive biomes including estuaries and tropical deciduous forests. To hold global temperature constant over the next 70 years this simulation requires that deserts decrease and forested areas increase. The effect of biome change on global temperature is revealed as a significant forecasting factor.
在预测人为增加大气二氧化碳浓度导致的气候调整时，大多数全球气候模型将生物群落分布固定在当前的地理条件下。以前的生物群落地图要么保持不变，要么在不考虑辐射和温度等气候反馈的情况下发生变化。我们开发了一个模型，用于研究生物群落分布对全球温度的反照率相关影响。该模型在1860年以来的历史生物群落变化上进行了测试，结果与观测到的温度趋势和量级变化均相符。然后，该模型被用于生成一个优化的未来生物群落分布，以尽量减少预计的温室效应对全球温度的影响。由于这种组合搜索的复杂性，采用了一种人工智能方法——遗传算法。该方法是在全球温度和总表面积恒定的约束条件下调整生物群落面积。为了调节全球温度，发现海洋比大陆生物群落起主导作用。藻床以及包括河口和热带落叶林在内的其他碳密集型生物群落都是重要的辐射杠杆。为了在未来70年内保持全球温度恒定，该模拟要求沙漠面积减少，森林面积增加。生物群落变化对全球温度的影响被揭示为一个重要的预测因素。
